The EU institutions are awash with speculation about how the next Commission might be appointed. How might events unfold?

The treaty of Lisbon which was voted by the Member States representatives to ease the governance of the EU and regulating how EU institutions should function in the future is not put into force yet as Ireland voted against it in 2008, and it will need a unanimous approval by all 27 Member States to be put in place. Ireland will hold a second referendum in October 2009, most probably.

European Parliament elections will be held in June 2009, together with a change of the European Commission, the second legislative body of the European Union. But the composition of the latter depends on whether the EU is governed by the Nice Treaty or the Lisbon Treaty (the “Constitution” of the EU). The latter streamlines decision-making, slims down the institutions and creates the new posts of a permanent EU President and a foreign representative. The timing of the second Irish referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon has thrown into disarray the EU's institutional calendar. José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, has warned his fellow Commissioners to be prepared to stay on beyond 31 October, the scheduled end of their mandate. The dilemma for the EU's Member States is that, on the one hand, they are obliged to abide by the calendar for the appointment of a new Commission and form a new College of Commissioners under the Nice treaty (the present “Constitution” of the EU) rules; on the other hand, they want to honour the promise made to Ireland that each Member State will have one commissioner each.

1. Timeline of votes and decisions

Steps:

18-19 June 2009: government leaders nominate the person they intend to appoint as President of the Commission

July 2009: the European Parliament votes on the nominee during its plenary session.

When? The other stages of the procedure – the nomination of commissioners, Parliamentary hearings for Commissioners, a vote on the whole Commission – are likely to be delayed and may not be completed by the time Ireland holds a second referendum.

October 2009: Irish referendum on Lisbon treaty.

If the Irish vote “No”, the College, as approved under the Nice rules, would continue its five-year mandate.

If the Irish vote "Yes", after October 2009: the creation of the Commission will be restarted and completed under the Lisbon treaty rules. The new team would resign and would be reappointed under the Lisbon treaty rules, albeit through a fast-track procedure (hearings for the president and those commissioner-nominees who had already been questioned by Members of the European Parliament would be accelerated)

2. Deciding of the size of the Commission

The greatest difficulty for government leaders is how to reduce the size of the Commission as the Nice treaty requires. Put another way: which Member States would not have a Commissioner in the next College?

Potential scenario:

Before the summer 2009: government leaders will decide on a formula for reducing the size of the Commission.

Summer 2009: the countries entitled to have a Commissioner will nominate their candidates

September & October 2009: the nominees will submit themselves to confirmation hearings in the European Parliament.

October 2009: the Parliament will vote on the new College

1 November 2009: the new team would officially start its term in office.

2nd potential scenario

June 2009: Member States announce their nominees for the Presidency for the Commission. They delay the nomination of potential Commissioners until after the Irish vote on the Lisbon treaty.

October 2009: Ireland votes on the Lisbon treaty

5 – 6 November 2009: EU Council summit: decision on a formula for cutting the size of the Commission

If the Irish vote “Yes”, EU government leaders could decide to keep one Commissioner for each Member State.

If the Irish vote “No”, government leaders would have to agree at the November summit on cutting the size of the College in a way that guarantees an “egalitarian rotation” among Member States.

Even if the Irish vote ‘Yes' in October, the Lisbon Treaty is unlikely to enter into force before 1 December 2009. The Czech Republic has yet to ratify the Treaty and Václav Klaus, the country's Eurosceptic President, has said that he will not sign it, even if it is endorsed by the parliament, until the Irish people approve it. Lech Kaczyn´ski, the President of Poland, has also refused to sign the Treaty, saying that he is waiting for the Irish question to be resolved. Even if the Irish back the Treaty in October, it could take a few weeks before the Czech Republic and Poland complete ratification.

Outcome

The uncertainty over the appointment of the next Commission is likely to limit the legislative agenda of the EU this year. An outgoing College is customarily reluctant to make important decisions that would tie the hands of the next administration. The Commission will be even more of a caretaker administration if its term is prolonged beyond its initial mandate, when its decisions could be open to legal challenge.

On the other hand, a Commission which is set up provisionally under the Nice treaty rules and which might resign after a few weeks to allow a new team to be appointed under the Lisbon treaty rules is also unlikely to do any serious business. And if the Lisbon treaty is not approved, a Commission which is formed under Nice treaty rules is unlikely to have the confidence of all Member States – particularly not those countries that do not have one of their nationals in the Commission team. All scenarios considered, the European Commission in the second half of 2009 will be hobbled and hamstrung.

This article will be followed in the next EUM by explanations on how the vote on the Lisbon Treaty will impact the composition of the European Parliament.